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Core FI Regains Some Ground Amid Mixed European PMIs

BONDS

Global core FI is a little stronger in early trade Friday in a partial reversal of Thursday's selloff, with the BoJ decision overnight and mixed European PMIs providing most of the interest.

  • Early trade was constructive with the BoJ and Governor Ueda delivering a dovish hold and communications, followed by weak French flash September PMIs which saw Bund / Gilt futures jump to session highs, dragging Treasuries higher with them
  • But gains were pared on stronger-than-expected German readings shortly thereafter.
  • The dovish impact of a 32-month low in Composite UK PMI on Gilts was limited, with yesterday's semi-surprise BoE hold in part informed by the PMI data which the MPC had in advance. But Gilts are easily outperforming peers overall.
  • Curves are mixed: UK's bull steepening, Germany's twist steepening, and Tsys leaning bull flatter.
  • US PMIs are the only 1st tier item left on the data docket for the week, but we get some Fed speakers from across the hawk-dove spectrum in the wake of Wednesday's hold: Cook, Daly, and Kashkari.

Latest levels:

  • Dec US 10Y futures (TY) up 1.5/32 at 108-15 (L: 108-9 / H: 108-19.5)
  • Dec Bund futures (RX) up 3 ticks at 129.63 (L: 129.50 / H: 130.19)
  • Dec Gilt futures (G) up 20 ticks at 96.07 (L: 95.65 / H: 96.37)
  • Italy / German 10-Yr spread 0.9bps tighter at 179.5bps
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