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Core FI sees a small bid ahead of the US midterms

BONDS
  • There is a small bid for core fixed income this morning, but moves are generally limited to a couple of basis points with curves also relatively steady.
  • The market is continuing to look ahead to Thursday's US CPI print but there is also focus on today's US midterm elections. There is an 85-90% chance implied by bookmakers of Democrats losing full control with Republicans gaining one or both houses. Furthermore, there is little discernable pattern in post-midterm asset moves: equities tend to rise in the aftermath of midterms no matter the result (though that is their natural long-term direction anyway); USD and UST returns are more mixed. In this regard though, the more interesting take from a risk-reward perspective is for a strong bearish Treasuries, bullish dollar move in the event the Democrats do the unlikely and win both the Senate and the House. We look ahead to the midterms from a market perspective here and our Political Risk Team's preview is available here.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-4 today at 109-24+ with 10y UST yields down -1.7bp at 4.199% and 2y yields down -1.9bp at 4.706%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.09 today at 136.36 with 10y Bund yields down -1.2bp at 2.328% and Schatz yields down -0.8bp at 2.194%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.07 today at 100.68 with 10y yields down -0.2bp at 3.632% and 2y yields down -0.4bp at 3.170%.
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