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Core HICP Momentum Accelerates Again In April

EUROZONE DATA
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The ECB’s seasonally adjusted HICP data indicates that core inflation momentum accelerated for a third consecutive month in April.

  • Seasonally adjusted core HICP momentum was 3.66% 3m/3m saar (vs 3.21% in March). This was driven by an uptick in services momentum to 5.29% (vs 4.34% prior), with non-energy industrial goods momentum moderating to 0.82% (vs 1.27% prior).
  • While momentum rose in April, sequential core inflation rose just 0.15% M/M (vs 0.31% prior). Sequential services inflation was 0.32% M/M (vs 0.50% prior) while non-energy industrial goods prices fell 0.16% (vs -0.03% prior).
  • Although inflation momentum is trending in the wrong direction for the ECB, there is no suggestion that today’s data would stand in the way of a June cut, which has been heavily signalled by members across the Governing Council.
  • However, recent trends in momentum will have a bearing on rate decisions beyond June. Recent ECB-speak has highlighted the differences in opinion amongst policymakers on this topic, and today’s data will support the hawkish contingent’s calls for caution in the path ahead.


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The ECB’s seasonally adjusted HICP data indicates that core inflation momentum accelerated for a third consecutive month in April.

  • Seasonally adjusted core HICP momentum was 3.66% 3m/3m saar (vs 3.21% in March). This was driven by an uptick in services momentum to 5.29% (vs 4.34% prior), with non-energy industrial goods momentum moderating to 0.82% (vs 1.27% prior).
  • While momentum rose in April, sequential core inflation rose just 0.15% M/M (vs 0.31% prior). Sequential services inflation was 0.32% M/M (vs 0.50% prior) while non-energy industrial goods prices fell 0.16% (vs -0.03% prior).
  • Although inflation momentum is trending in the wrong direction for the ECB, there is no suggestion that today’s data would stand in the way of a June cut, which has been heavily signalled by members across the Governing Council.
  • However, recent trends in momentum will have a bearing on rate decisions beyond June. Recent ECB-speak has highlighted the differences in opinion amongst policymakers on this topic, and today’s data will support the hawkish contingent’s calls for caution in the path ahead.