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POLAND: Core Inflation Eyed, MPC's Kochalski Sees Potential For July Cut

POLAND
PolandCEEMEAEM BulletBulletEmerging Market News
  • The NBP will release core CPI data for February at 13:00GMT/14:00CET alongside January trade balance and current-account balance. Headline CPI came in at +4.9% Y/Y, significantly undershooting the 5.3% consensus forecast on the back of the annual re-weighting of the CPI basket, which shifted the starting point for this year markedly lower. The median estimate of core inflation in a Bloomberg poll was +4.0% Y/Y, but all of the predictions were supplied before Statistics Poland published the details of the annual revamp of the CPI basket. During the presentation of the NBP's Inflation Projection on Friday, head of the central bank's analytics said that the impact of the revision will fade with time and should already be negligible in 2026/2027.
  • MPC's Ludwik Kotecki told Biznes24 TV that below-forecast CPI data rendered the NBP's macroeconomic projection outdated and said that the central bank should have waited with its monetary policy meeting until after the data was published. He noted that the projection may need an extraordinary revision in April, while the fact that inflation is tracking below the predicted path means that a motion to cut rates may appear already in 1H2025 (after April), depending on wage developments.
  • Meanwhile, MPC's Cezary Kochalski told IBSNews that the central bank could reduce interest rates after the release of the next inflation projection in July. In his view, a one-off adjustment, possibly of a larger-than-usual magnitude, is more likely than a series of cuts. Kochalski said that the March inflation projection was more benign than the one from November and provided grounds for a discussion on interest-rate cuts, even if not yet for actual cuts.
  • Money.pl reported that NBP Governor Adam Glapinski suffered another setback, as all members of the Management Board except Deputy Governors Marta Kightley and Adam Lipinski rejected his proposal to change the way Board meetings are scheduled, prompting the Governor to retract the proposal. This comes after local outlets reported that the MPC refused to sign a letter drafted by the Governor, replying to the Sejm Speaker's call for lower interest rates.
  • NBP Deputy Governor Marta Kightley said during the LSE Polish Economic Forum in London that Polish exporters do not see the level of the exchange rate as a major problem. She also argued that joining the eurozone should not be a priority, noting that Poland has managed to grow faster than the bloc despite having higher interest rates.
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  • The NBP will release core CPI data for February at 13:00GMT/14:00CET alongside January trade balance and current-account balance. Headline CPI came in at +4.9% Y/Y, significantly undershooting the 5.3% consensus forecast on the back of the annual re-weighting of the CPI basket, which shifted the starting point for this year markedly lower. The median estimate of core inflation in a Bloomberg poll was +4.0% Y/Y, but all of the predictions were supplied before Statistics Poland published the details of the annual revamp of the CPI basket. During the presentation of the NBP's Inflation Projection on Friday, head of the central bank's analytics said that the impact of the revision will fade with time and should already be negligible in 2026/2027.
  • MPC's Ludwik Kotecki told Biznes24 TV that below-forecast CPI data rendered the NBP's macroeconomic projection outdated and said that the central bank should have waited with its monetary policy meeting until after the data was published. He noted that the projection may need an extraordinary revision in April, while the fact that inflation is tracking below the predicted path means that a motion to cut rates may appear already in 1H2025 (after April), depending on wage developments.
  • Meanwhile, MPC's Cezary Kochalski told IBSNews that the central bank could reduce interest rates after the release of the next inflation projection in July. In his view, a one-off adjustment, possibly of a larger-than-usual magnitude, is more likely than a series of cuts. Kochalski said that the March inflation projection was more benign than the one from November and provided grounds for a discussion on interest-rate cuts, even if not yet for actual cuts.
  • Money.pl reported that NBP Governor Adam Glapinski suffered another setback, as all members of the Management Board except Deputy Governors Marta Kightley and Adam Lipinski rejected his proposal to change the way Board meetings are scheduled, prompting the Governor to retract the proposal. This comes after local outlets reported that the MPC refused to sign a letter drafted by the Governor, replying to the Sejm Speaker's call for lower interest rates.
  • NBP Deputy Governor Marta Kightley said during the LSE Polish Economic Forum in London that Polish exporters do not see the level of the exchange rate as a major problem. She also argued that joining the eurozone should not be a priority, noting that Poland has managed to grow faster than the bloc despite having higher interest rates.