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Core Non-Housing Service Inflation Stoked By Surprise Medical Care Recovery

US DATA
  • Getting into the details, medical care services came in above all analyst estimates that we’d seen beforehand, switching from -0.67% M/M to 0.09% M/M after last month’s downward surprise.
  • It accounted for 0.07pps of the increase in core CPI (with its heavy 9% weight of the core CPI basket) and explains a big chunk of the 0.1pp bounce in non-housing core services.
  • That in turn was boosted by an unusually large 1.5% M/M jump in hospital services (3% of core basket), the fastest since Oct’15 and otherwise the third strongest monthly reading since at least 2000.
  • The concentration of strength in a category that appears highly unlikely to repeat such an increase hints at softer non-housing service inflation ahead.

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