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Core PCE Broadly In Line In Jan But With Particularly Strong Supercore

US DATA
Energy BulletsCommodities
  • Core PCE increased 0.416% M/M in January, fractionally stronger than the 0.4 median consensus which had tilted fractionally lower.
  • The previously known Q4 upward revision was mildly dovish from a momentum perspective, in that Dec was revised down from 0.17% to 0.145% (triggering the rounded downward revision), followed an upward revised 0.089% (from 0.065) in Nov and 0.154 (from 0.140) in Oct.
  • Core services ex-housing inflation was indeed very strong, at 0.596% M/M (two analysts had looked for 0.55 prior) for its strongest monthly print since Dec’21.
  • Within housing, PCE imputed rental of owner-occupied housing mirrors the acceleration in CPI’s OER, jumping to 0.56% M/M from a downward revised 0.42 (initial 0.47).
  • Recent annualized trend rates: core PCE at 2.6% over three-months (from 1.6% in Dec), 2.5% over six-months (from 1.9%).
  • Supercore PCE at 4.2% over three-months (from 2.2% in Dec), 3.4% over six-months (from 2.8%).
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  • Core PCE increased 0.416% M/M in January, fractionally stronger than the 0.4 median consensus which had tilted fractionally lower.
  • The previously known Q4 upward revision was mildly dovish from a momentum perspective, in that Dec was revised down from 0.17% to 0.145% (triggering the rounded downward revision), followed an upward revised 0.089% (from 0.065) in Nov and 0.154 (from 0.140) in Oct.
  • Core services ex-housing inflation was indeed very strong, at 0.596% M/M (two analysts had looked for 0.55 prior) for its strongest monthly print since Dec’21.
  • Within housing, PCE imputed rental of owner-occupied housing mirrors the acceleration in CPI’s OER, jumping to 0.56% M/M from a downward revised 0.42 (initial 0.47).
  • Recent annualized trend rates: core PCE at 2.6% over three-months (from 1.6% in Dec), 2.5% over six-months (from 1.9%).
  • Supercore PCE at 4.2% over three-months (from 2.2% in Dec), 3.4% over six-months (from 2.8%).