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Core PCE Potentially Set For 'Low' 0.2% M/M in Dec

US DATA

Ahead of the 0830ET December release, yesterday’s Q4 advance for core PCE inflation was exactly as expected at 2.0% annualized and implies 0.16% M/M (cons 0.2) after a particularly soft 0.06% M/M in Nov. There will however likely be revisions to the latest monthly path.


Sellside comments after yesterday’s Q4 advance:

  • MS: Assuming no revisions in October or November, this quarterly print implies a monthly core PCE inflation rate for December of 0.16%M, slightly lower than our prior expectations (0.19%M).
  • NWM: Our earlier December core PCE m/m estimate of 0.168% unrounded still looks reasonable.

Further core PCE estimates as of after CPI/PPI releases on Jan 11/12.

  • Pantheon: 0.15% M/M
  • Barclays: 0.17% M/M
  • GS: 0.17% M/M from 0.20% post-CPI
  • JPM: 0.21% M/M
  • StanChart: 0.22%
  • Wrightson ICAP: Borderline between 0.2-0.3% M/M
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