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MNI US MARKETS ANALYSIS - Curve Steeper Ahead of JOLTS
"Core" Sales Measures Beat, But Retail Flatlining Overall (1/2)
US April retail sales came in below consensus on the headline figure (+0.4% M/M vs 0.8% expected) and was in-line on ex-autos (+0.4% vs +0.4% exp.), but there were upward revisions to March for both (respectively by 0.3pp to -0.7%, and by 0.3pp to -0.5%).
- Conversely, the more "core" categories were stronger than expected, but saw March downgraded: ex-auto and gas grew +0.6% M/M (vs +0.2% exp; March lowered 0.2pp to -0.5%), while the GDP-input control group was +0.7% M/M (vs +0.4% exp, March lowerd 0.1pp to -0.4%).
- Details by category were mixed: in the biggest 5 categories, motor vehicles strengthened, as did general and nonstore retailers; weaker were food/beverage, and food services/drinking places.
- The strength in the core readings, especially the congrol group, presents a better-than-expected picture of US consumption in April.
- But the broader picture suggests nominal retail sales continue to flatline (+2.4% Y/Y growth), and remain below the Jan 2023 peak. That's not entirely surprising given the ongoing shift toward services and away from goods consumption.
Source: US Census Bureau
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