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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EUROZONE DATA
June's flash eurozone inflation data showed a slowdown in "momentum" (as measured by 3M/3M % ann. change, per the ECB's seasonally-adjusted data and MNI's calculations) across all major HICP categories.
- This approach often provides a better guide to ongoing price pressures versus the Y/Y metric - especially so with today's readings famously distorted to the upside by June 2022's introduction of the 9 euro German transport ticket.
- Overall HICP momentum slowed to 2.7% 3M/3M annualised from 4.1% in May, well down from the two recent peaks in Nov '22 (11.3%) and May '22 (12.8%) and the lowest since June 2021.
- Goods (industrial ex-energy) momentum fell to 2.9% (from 4.3% prior), with food prices slowing markedly to 6.6% (from 10.7% prior) - both the lowest since Jan '22.
- That being said, services remain relatively sticky, with 3M annualised momentum at 5.4%, down just 5.7% from May, and "just" a 3-month low.
- And while momentum in core prices as a whole dipped to the lowest since March 2022 (just after the Russian invasion of Ukraine) at 5.0% vs 6% in May and is headed in the "right" direction, this metric has printed at 5% or above since April 2022.
- These readings suggest that there would have to be some more progress on disinflation in the next two monthly reports (flash prints due July 31 and Aug 31) before the Governing Council leans to a pause at the Sep 14 decision.
Source: ECB, MNI Calculations
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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