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Corporate Debt Issuance Hedging Tempers Post 2Y Auction Support

US TSYS
  • Treasuries look to finish mildly higher Tuesday, near the middle of a generally narrow session range. Tsys extended highs briefly (TYU4 tapped 111-00) after the $69B 2Y Note auction stopped 2.1bp through (4.434% high yld vs. 4.455% WI).
  • Tsy futures quickly reversed amid comparatively heavy rate lock hedging vs. corporate issuance: $12B United Health over 8 tranches, and $5B Occidental Petroleum over 5 tranches.
  • Tsys gained earlier after weaker than expected existing home sales: 3.89m (cons 3.99m) after an unrevised 4.11m in May. It sees sales fall -5.4% M/M and a fourth consecutive monthly decline worth a cumulative -11% which has more than offset the 9.5% jump back in Feb.
  • Tsy Sep'24 10Y futures are currently trading 110-26 (+3), above initial technical support of 110-21+, the 20-day EMA. Otherwise bullish theme in Treasuries remains intact despite a fade in prices through late last week and into Monday morning. Short-term pullbacks are proving to be corrective at this stage. The contract has traded through resistance at 111-10+, the Jul 8 high.
  • Focus turns to Wednesday's Wholesale/Retail Inventories, Flash PMIs and New Home Sales; Tsy supply includes $30B 2Y FRN Note and $70B 5Y Notes.
  • Early Wednesday equity earnings from: Tenet Healthcare, Evercore, AT&T, Amphenol, CME Group, Old Dominion Freight Line, Blackstone Mortgage Trust, International Paper, Boston Scientific, Applied Digital, Lennox International, Fiserv, General Dynamics, Thermo Fisher Scientific, NextEra Energy, Otis Worldwide, Stifel Financial and NextEra Energy.
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