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Corrective Bounce into Friday Close

USDCAD TECHS
  • RES 4: 1.3387 High Jul 7 and a key resistance
  • RES 3: 1.3361 50-dma
  • RES 2: 1.3304 High Jul 10
  • RES 1: 1.3251 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 1.3221 @ 08:51 BST Jul 17
  • SUP 1: 1.3084 1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
  • SUP 2: 1.3032 1.764 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
  • SUP 3: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2022 bull leg
  • SUP 4: 1.2949 2.00 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing

USDCAD traded lower again early Friday before bouncing into the close. The subsequent bounce looks corrective at this juncture, keeping the medium-term trend pointed lower for now. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of 1.3117, the Jun 27 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started on Oct 13 2022. The break lower opens 1.3084, and 1.3032, Fibonacci projection points. The 1.0% 10-dma envelope has been pierced for the first time since mid-June, signalling the extent of the current downside momentum. Firm resistance is seen at 1.3251, the 20-day EMA.

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