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INDONESIA: Country Wrap: GDP Strong, Slightly Below Targets. 

INDONESIA
  • Bank Indonesia will most likely cut another 25 basis points off of its policy rate during the Feb. 19 rate decision following benign GDP growth, according to Barclays.  We doubt the stability of the Q4 GDP growth figure will reduce the central bank’s enthusiasm for monetary policy easing,” (source: BBG).
  • Indonesia’s economy grew 5.03 percent in 2024, slightly below the government’s 5.2 percent target and last year’s growth of 5.05 percent, according to data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS).   Acting BPS Head Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti said in a Wednesday briefing that fourth-quarter GDP grew 5.02 percent year-on-year, slightly lower than the 5.04 percent recorded in the third quarter. “All sectors recorded positive growth in 2024,” she said, highlighting manufacturing (18.98 percent), trade (13.07 percent), and agriculture (12.61 percent) as the largest contributors. (source: Jakarta Globe)
  • Indonesia has recorded a multi-decade low inflation rate this January with experts saying the figure recorded this month is rather unusual and could be cause for concern. Interim Statistics Indonesia (BPS) head announced at a press conference on Monday that consumer price index (CPI) growth slipped to 0.76 percent year-on-year (yoy) in January. “The annual inflation in January 2025 is the lowest since January 2000,” (source: Jakarta Post).
  • The Jakarta Composite is having one of its worst day of the year, down -1.96%.
  • IDR:  risk aversion is prevailing in Indonesian markets with the rupiah down -.239 at 16,332.
  • Bonds: bonds have rallied today with yields 2-4bps lower in yield across the curve.  INDOGB 10YR 6.901% (-2.8bps)
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  • Bank Indonesia will most likely cut another 25 basis points off of its policy rate during the Feb. 19 rate decision following benign GDP growth, according to Barclays.  We doubt the stability of the Q4 GDP growth figure will reduce the central bank’s enthusiasm for monetary policy easing,” (source: BBG).
  • Indonesia’s economy grew 5.03 percent in 2024, slightly below the government’s 5.2 percent target and last year’s growth of 5.05 percent, according to data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS).   Acting BPS Head Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti said in a Wednesday briefing that fourth-quarter GDP grew 5.02 percent year-on-year, slightly lower than the 5.04 percent recorded in the third quarter. “All sectors recorded positive growth in 2024,” she said, highlighting manufacturing (18.98 percent), trade (13.07 percent), and agriculture (12.61 percent) as the largest contributors. (source: Jakarta Globe)
  • Indonesia has recorded a multi-decade low inflation rate this January with experts saying the figure recorded this month is rather unusual and could be cause for concern. Interim Statistics Indonesia (BPS) head announced at a press conference on Monday that consumer price index (CPI) growth slipped to 0.76 percent year-on-year (yoy) in January. “The annual inflation in January 2025 is the lowest since January 2000,” (source: Jakarta Post).
  • The Jakarta Composite is having one of its worst day of the year, down -1.96%.
  • IDR:  risk aversion is prevailing in Indonesian markets with the rupiah down -.239 at 16,332.
  • Bonds: bonds have rallied today with yields 2-4bps lower in yield across the curve.  INDOGB 10YR 6.901% (-2.8bps)