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INDIA:  Country Wrap:  India Data Looking for Impact of Rate Cuts. 

INDIA
IndiaEM BulletBulletAPACEmerging Market News
  • India’s industrial production data will be the first release for it post the RBI cut and markets expects a small rise.  Having averaged over 4% for the last year, the last print of 3.2% may have been somewhat of a warning shot for the RBI as they decided on rates and the voting members will be watching this release for signs of any early impact that monetary policy changes may have.  India also sees the February CPI release where forecasters expect a further moderation. Against a RBI target of 4%, January’s release of 4.31% may not be achieved as prices slow further driven by food. The market expects February CPI to be at 3.98%, supporting the rate cut at the prior meeting.  The RBI has a target of 4% +/-2% and would likely want to see sustained downward pressure on prices before the cut again.  The bond market is currently pricing 19bps of cuts over the next three months. (source: MNI – Market News)
  • US President Donald Trump’s threats to hike tariffs isn’t all bad news for India’s economy since it’s driving the government to lower trade barriers, which will spur competition and growth.  That’s the view of Viral Acharya, a former central bank deputy governor, who says greater competition means Indian firms will be forced to raise their standards to take on global rivals. That, in turn, means higher quality jobs and a larger manufacturing base, he said.  (source: BBG)
  • India’s NIFTY 50 is opening up only marginally lower, down by -0.09%, having lost -0.41% in yesterday’s trading.
  • INR:  the rupee is opening up trading flat today at 87.31
  • Bonds:  having sold off yesterday, India’s 10YR is opening up stronger this morning at 6.69%. 
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  • India’s industrial production data will be the first release for it post the RBI cut and markets expects a small rise.  Having averaged over 4% for the last year, the last print of 3.2% may have been somewhat of a warning shot for the RBI as they decided on rates and the voting members will be watching this release for signs of any early impact that monetary policy changes may have.  India also sees the February CPI release where forecasters expect a further moderation. Against a RBI target of 4%, January’s release of 4.31% may not be achieved as prices slow further driven by food. The market expects February CPI to be at 3.98%, supporting the rate cut at the prior meeting.  The RBI has a target of 4% +/-2% and would likely want to see sustained downward pressure on prices before the cut again.  The bond market is currently pricing 19bps of cuts over the next three months. (source: MNI – Market News)
  • US President Donald Trump’s threats to hike tariffs isn’t all bad news for India’s economy since it’s driving the government to lower trade barriers, which will spur competition and growth.  That’s the view of Viral Acharya, a former central bank deputy governor, who says greater competition means Indian firms will be forced to raise their standards to take on global rivals. That, in turn, means higher quality jobs and a larger manufacturing base, he said.  (source: BBG)
  • India’s NIFTY 50 is opening up only marginally lower, down by -0.09%, having lost -0.41% in yesterday’s trading.
  • INR:  the rupee is opening up trading flat today at 87.31
  • Bonds:  having sold off yesterday, India’s 10YR is opening up stronger this morning at 6.69%.