Court Rules Zuma Can Run For Parl't In Blow To ANC's Maj Chances

South Africa's electoral court has ruled that former President Jacob Zuma is eligible to run for the National Assembly, overturning a ban issued by the electoral commission just a month ago. The ruling will come as a notable blow to the prospects of incumbent President Cyril Ramaphosa's big-tent African National Congress (ANC) retaining its parliamentary majority.

• The constitution bars anyone sentenced to more than 12 months in prison from running for parliament, and having been sentenced to 15 months behind bars in 2021 for contempt of court, the commission initially disqualified Zuma's candidacy. However, he only served a few weeks before being allowed to leave on medical grounds, with his sentence subsequently reduced.
• Zuma's populist uMkhonto weSizwe (MK, 'Spear of the Nation') polled ~12% in February opinion polling, a total that if reflected in the 29 May parliamentary election could prove sufficient to deny the ANC a majority. One potential source of relief for the ANC is that MK draws much of its support from Zuma's home province of KwaZulu-Natal. This could disproportionatly affect the KZN-based Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) more than the ANC.
• Under the South African electoral system, the president is decided by a vote in parliament. As such, the loss of its majority would require the ANC to gain the support of MK, or even the communist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) of Julius Malema, to elect a president. This scenario would undoubtedly involve notable concessions to the minor party and detabilise an already-unsettled political landscape.