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CPI categories versus expectations

UK DATA
  • Regarding recreation and culture which reduced CPI Y/Y by 0.14ppt, the ONS urges some caution: "The decrease in the rate between October and November 2023 was the result of small downward effects from a variety of the more detailed classes. The largest came from games, toys and hobbies (particularly computer games), and cultural services (particularly admission fees to theatres and live music events). Short-term movements in these categories should be interpreted with a degree of caution, as these movements depend on the composition of best seller charts and the acts that are performing respectively."
  • The restaurants and hotels category that had been seen as the big driver of the downside surprise to last month's services CPI release (i.e. October) saw a small rebound and actually contributed positively by 0.01ppt to the change in Y/Y headline CPI. Probably not as big of a rebound as some had pencilled in.
  • Food price inflation reduced to +9.2%Y/Y - this was to the weaker side of analyst views we had seen ranging from +9.1% to +9.6% - but not a huge driver of the overall surprise here. FAT contributed 0.15ppt to the headline CPI Y/Y change.
  • Fuel prices and second hand car prices both contributed negatively - that had been flagged by a number of analysts. Overall the -0.27ppt contribution to the headline CPI Y/Y change was larger than expected though.
  • There was also weakness in furniture and household goods.
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