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CPI Data Portends Softer Core PCE, Pending PPI Tomorrow

US DATA
Some preliminary June PCE estimates (data due out Jul 28th, after the FOMC meeting) are coming in after the CPI reading, with more likely coming out tomorrow after the PPI inputs are revealed.
  • Morgan Stanley now estimates core PCE at +0.14% M/M (vs 0.31% in May), which apart from a one-off dip in July 2022 would be the softest print since November 2020. They see headline +0.15% M/M (vs 0.13% in May).
  • Of note: In the CPI report, core services ex-housing and medical ("core core") was down to 0.00% M/M vs 0.34%, but MS's prelim forecast for the equivalent in PCE is set to tick up to 0.27% M/M from 0.24% (the divergence in the two readings is largely due to airfares).
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