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CPI Dips Back Into Negative Y/Y Territory On Food Drag, PPI Deflation Continues

CHINA DATA

China October inflation data was close to expectations. Headline CPI fell to -0.2% y/y, versus -0.1% forecast and flat prior. The PPI was -2.6% y/y, versus -2.7% forecast and -2.5% prior.

  • Recall that the recent PMI prints suggested reduced price pressures in October, so this result is consistent with that. M/M CPI fell -0.1%, versus a 0.2% rise last month. Core CPI slipped back to 0.6% y/y (from 0.8% prior), but remains within 2023 ranges.
  • In terms of the detail, food was a big drag, down -4.0%, while non-food was steady at 0.7%. Elsewhere, most sub-categories saw inflation at similar to September levels.
  • Outside of the food result, today's data is not suggesting a sharp slowdown in inflation pressure but equally we remain at depressed levels in terms of core CPI trends, so that shouldn't stop any further easing steps by the authorities.
  • On the PPI side, the detail was a little softer. The drag from the mining and raw materials side softened.
  • However, consumer goods were weaker, down -0.9% y/y, from -0.3%, led durables at -2.0% (prior -1.2%).

Fig 1: China CPI and PPI Y/Y

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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