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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
POLAND
- Polish CPI inflation came in higher than expected in October, reaching a 20Y high at 6.8% YoY (vs. 6.4% exp.), up from 5.9% the previous month.
- The chart below shows that inflation in Poland has diverged significantly from the NBP 3.5% upper tolerance band.
- PLN strengthening following CPI positive surprise as market is starting to price in a potential NBP reaction next week (Nov 3).
- Consensus is currently expecting the NBP to maintain its policy rate on hold at 0.5%, but another hike is very likely given the elevated inflationary pressures.
- With the FRA 3Mx6M currently trading over 100bps above the Wibor 3M, the futures rate market is currently pricing in the NBP policy rate to be at 1.5% by the end of January 2022.
- EURPLN ticks lower following the CPI print, gradually approaching the low of its 3-day range at 4.61; next support to watch on the downside stands at 4.60.
- Selling Pressure on the long end of the curve remains elevated with the 10Y yield approaching the 2.9% resistance; next key level to watch on the topside stands at 3%.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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