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CPI Inflation Metric Cools, PPI Up Next

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures have traded sideways since noon after extending highs in the hours following lower than expected June CPI: MoM (0.2% vs. 0.3% est), YoY (3.0% vs. 3.1% est); Ex Food and Energy MoM (0.2% vs. 0.3% est), YoY (4.8% vs. 5.0% est).
  • Traders debated whether it's a trend shift or a one-off move as a proportion of volatile categories (lodging, airfare and used cars) accounted for the slow-down in core inflation.
  • Some moderately hawkish Fed speak from Barkin ("comfortable with more hikes") and Kashkari ("entrenched inflation could prompt Fed to hike further") did little to stem the post-data rally. Reminder, Fed goes into policy blackout this Friday at midnight.
  • Cross asset summary: Equities are in the green but off high (SPX eminis +33.0 at 4506.5), US$ index broadly lower (DXY -1.208 at 100.524). Curves steeper but well off highs after some late block selling in 2s. Currently, 2s10s +2.798 at -88.096 vs. -83.371 high) compares to 40+ year inverted low of -111.0 tapped in March.
  • Short end rally saw projected rate hike by year end recede slightly: July 26 FOMC is 89% w/ implied rate of +22.2bp to 5.298%. September cumulative of 26.2bp vs. +28bp earlier at 5.338%, November cumulative of 30.9 vs 35bp at 5.425%, December cumulative 25.3 vs. 30bp at 5.380%.
  • Treasury futures slip off highs briefly, rebound after the $32B 10Y note auction re-open (91282CHC8) tails: 3.857% high yield vs. 3.850% WI; 2.53x bid-to-cover vs. 2.36x prior
  • Focus turns to Thursday's weekly claims and June PPI.
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