Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUSTRALIA DATA
July CPI inflation rose 4.9% y/y down from 5.4%, which was lower than expected but still in the range of forecasts. This is the lowest inflation rate since January 2022. Seasonally adjusted it increased 0.3% m/m after +0.5%. Trimmed mean remains higher but moderated to 5.6% y/y in July from 6%, the lowest in a year. With inflation declining more than expected and heading towards the RBA’s 4.1% Q4 2023 forecast, rates are likely to be on hold again at the September meeting.
- CPI ex volatile items & holidays eased to 5.8% y/y in July from 6.1%. It was up 0.5% on the month after 0.3% and 3-month momentum is around 4.5% where it has been since May. CPI ex volatile items is now down 1.4pp from its December 2022 peak whereas headline is down 3.6pp. While underlying inflation is looking stickier, it is still heading in the right direction (see chart).
- Auto fuel and fruit & veg put downward pressure on inflation falling 7.6% y/y and 5.4% respectively. Again the ABS pointed out that it is worth looking at CPI excluding the volatile items like food and fuel.
- Housing continued to be strong at 7.3% y/y with rents up 7.6% from 7.3% but new dwelling inflation at its lowest since October 2021 at 5.9% driven by building materials.
- Electricity prices rose 6% m/m in July to be 15.7% y/y higher and the ABS notes that without government rebates they would have risen 19.2% y/y.
Australia CPI y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok