-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Global Macro Weekly -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessCPI Preview, July: Potential Long-Awaited Moderation In Core Run Rates
- Released on Tuesday at 0830ET, Canadian headline CPI inflation is seen at a non-seasonally adjusted 0.3% M/M in July, for 3.0% Y/Y (+0.2pps).
- It would mean headline CPI right at the top of the BoC’s 1-3% target range after large moderation in recent months saw June with the first print in the target range since spring 2021. Base effects likely mean a larger push higher for the Y/Y is in store for August.
- Analysts pencil in the average of the BoC’s preferred median and trim measures to slow 0.15pps to 3.65% Y/Y but more focus is likely on the latest monthly trend.
- A similar M/M reading to June (0.3% M/M for both) would see these core measures slow from 3.8% to 3.2% annualized on the three-month run rate that it focuses on, breaking a string of readings in the 3.5-4% range since September with the continued recent resilience playing a large role in the last two BoC hikes.
- For those preferring a more traditional core metric (ex food & energy), CIBC, who are above consensus with headline at 0.4% M/M NSA, look for 0.3% M/M SA after two months at 0.14% M/M. That would see the three-month slow to 2.3% from 2.5% after already a larger moderation than the BoC’s preferred core measures in recent months.
- This is the last CPI reading before the BoC decision on Sep 6, with the market currently pricing in a little under 1/3 probability of a 25bp hike.
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.