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CPI Preview: Sell-Side Sees Different Shades Of 0.2% M/M Core

US DATA
  • Citi's core forecast is 0.23% M/M, implying risks of a higher rounded print to 0.3%. "Each monthly print over the coming months carries risk of a strong-than-expected increase, partly as components such as hotels and airfares should rise back toward pre-COVID levels as activity normalizes."
  • Deutsche looks for unrounded core of +0.17%. They are focused on "what is happening at the component level, which will determine how durable any strength will be going forward." They point to temporary demand-induced price surges in certain categories due to stimulus checks, for instance on apparel. On services, they expect some rebound in prices for airfares/lodging away from home, while medical care services could soften somewhat, and rents too but less so.
  • In addition, Deutsche point out "with large base effects looming, it will be more important to pay attention to shorter run trends in inflation or trimmed mean measures that can look through some of the distortions from last year's collapse in prices."
  • Similarly, JPM is looking for +0.16% M/M core CPI.
  • Scotiabank is in line w expectations on headline at 2.5% Y/Y, but notes that seasonal price swings mean March figures can be "all over the map", and that a major wildcard is supply chain pressures on producer prices feeding through to consumer prices.
  • ING writes that "housing-related inflation components adding to the push higher in inflation towards 4% over the summer and crucially keeping it closer to 3% for longer."
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