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CANADA
  • Consensus has headline CPI slowing from 4.3% to 4.1% Y/Y in April in a tight call with 4.2%. There is a typically wide range of views from 3.7-4.4% across the twelve estimates, although local banks are more tightly packed including CIBC, RBC, Scotia and TD at 4.1/4.2 (summaries to follow).
  • Base effects should mean a larger moderation in May which is partly why Macklem has relative confidence in getting inflation back to 3% by the summer before it gets harder to move further to the 2% target.
  • Core measures will be important, with the trim/median average seen falling 0.3pps to 4.2% Y/Y, helped by base effects. TD, who admittedly look for a smaller 0.2pp average decline to 4.3% Y/Y, see it masking a pickup to 0.4% on a M/M basis which could concern the BoC. This will be the main area to watch with 3-month run rates stalling at around 3.5% in recent months.
  • The next BoC decision isn’t until Jun 7 but there are relatively few key releases before then, with Q1 GDP and less so retail sales as the labour report lands two days after. This tilts risk towards a greater reaction to any surprises, with OIS currently seeing limited odds of a June hike but also less than one cut priced to year-end.
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