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CPI Promotes Slight Hawkish BoE Repricing, A Little Over 7bp Of Cuts Priced For Next Month

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HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

SONIA futures twist flatten -3.0 to +1.5, with the front end under pressure from the firmer-than-expected, but seemingly noisy, UK CPI data.

  • We have given plenty of colour on the data in our recent run of bullets.
  • BoE-dated OIS sees ~3bp hawkish adjustments through mid-’25 contracts. That leaves ~7.5bp of cuts priced for August and ~46bp of easing showing through year end.
  • A reminder that the King’s Speech will be delivered late this morning (we wrote more on that here)
  • Further out, the latest UK labour market report is due tomorrow.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Aug-245.125-7.5
Sep-245.025-17.5
Nov-244.852-34.8
Dec-244.742-45.8
Feb-254.580-62.0
Mar-254.465-73.5
May-254.324-87.6
Jun-254.222-97.8

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg. 2025 meeting dates are estimated.

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SONIA futures twist flatten -3.0 to +1.5, with the front end under pressure from the firmer-than-expected, but seemingly noisy, UK CPI data.

  • We have given plenty of colour on the data in our recent run of bullets.
  • BoE-dated OIS sees ~3bp hawkish adjustments through mid-’25 contracts. That leaves ~7.5bp of cuts priced for August and ~46bp of easing showing through year end.
  • A reminder that the King’s Speech will be delivered late this morning (we wrote more on that here)
  • Further out, the latest UK labour market report is due tomorrow.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Aug-245.125-7.5
Sep-245.025-17.5
Nov-244.852-34.8
Dec-244.742-45.8
Feb-254.580-62.0
Mar-254.465-73.5
May-254.324-87.6
Jun-254.222-97.8

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg. 2025 meeting dates are estimated.