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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
Bloomberg Consensus sees June U.S. headline CPI (0830ET/1330BST) slipping to +0.5% M/M vs +0.6% in May (and +4.9% Y/Y vs +5.0 prior), with core falling to +0.4% M/M vs +0.7% in May (though ticking up to a 30-yr high of +4.0% Y/Y vs +3.8% prior).
- MNI's data team writes that price pressures continued through June as labor shortages and ongoing supply chain disruptions hampered goods production and demand rose solidly. High inflation readings are being amplified by pandemic base effects / transitory factors should begin to fade soon, but will likely running above 2.5% Y/Y through 2022.
- With base effects continuing to distort Y/Y figures, more focus will be on the M/M readings, particularly for core: BBG survey range is +0.2-+0.6% (avg 0.44%, with a fairly narrow standard deviation of +0.09%, suggesting a potentially amplified reaction to an outsized miss).
- A few of the analysts looking for upside surprises point to pandemic-related areas such as used cars and travel being fairly sticky, while seeing upside surprises from areas such as shelter (30+% of core) continuing to bounce from low levels.
- Downside estimates center around large drops in pandemic-related categories, with many noting for example that the Manheim used car index fell 1.3% M/M in Jun after +8.3% Apr / +4.6% May - this category alone contributed 0.3pp to the core print in June.
Source: BLS, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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