Credit Suisse Flag Early Month-End Rebalancing Flow Potential

Credit Suisse note that "with the year-end holiday season approaching and volume likely to drop significantly after this week, we expect pension funds that typically trade near month-end may rebalance early and take advantage of the tremendous liquidity available tomorrow due to Quad Witching and index rebalancing. The S&P 500 is up 2.9% so far this month and 11% this quarter outperforming fixed income assets. As a result, we estimate combined selling of $17.5bn domestic equity from pension funds that rebalance on a monthly or quarterly basis. International equities have performed even better with MSCI EAFE up 4.3% MTD and 15.7% QTD while Emerging Markets is up 5.7% MTD and 17.9% QTD. We expect selling of $37.5bn in Developed Market equities and selling of $19.5bn in Emerging Market equities. Within fixed income, given the underperformance relative to equities, we expect large inflows of $70bn as pension funds reallocate equity gains into bonds to get back to target levels."