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EURO-NOK: Credit Suisse's FX trade of the week eyes a lower EUR/NOK rate.
CS write: "NOK is our preferred oil play in G10, and should benefit from
increased expectations for an OPEC supply cut in December following the
weekend's Saudi production headlines. (Although medium-term our expectations for
oil prices remain bearish, we still see scope for some further short-term gains
leading into the meeting). NOK also benefits from ongoing strong macro
fundamentals and no other significant data/political risks this week. NOK is
also a 'cleaner' play on oil in our view, compared to Canada or other currencies
more exposed to 'Trump risk'.
-By contrast the situation in Europe appears much more problematic this week.
The Italian government has a deadline to submit a revised version of the budget
tomorrow, but has shown little desire so far to make more than only marginal
changes to their draft.
-CS add that the main risk to the trade is if the upwards momentum in oil prices
loses momentum. Entry: 9.53 spot