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FOREX: Cross/JPY Weakens amid Lower US Equities, USDMXN Prints New 2025 Lows

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  • Thursday’s session has been characterised by another bout of US equity weakness. The direction of the greenback has been less clear to the waning sentiment than in recent sessions, leaving the Japanese yen as the key beneficiary from the moves.
  • As such, AUDJPY is down ~0.9% as we approach the APAC crossover, and the ongoing weakness/volatility in equity markets will keep this cross firmly in the spotlight in coming weeks. Both 20- and 50-day EMAs have acted as strong resistance, keeping a bearish threat at the fore. Two lows at 91.86 provide initial support, of which a breach would target a move to the carry unwind lows around 90.00 from August last year.
  • For USDJPY, yesterday’s flurry above 148.00 has proved short-lived and spot tracks closer to 147.50 in late European trade. The bearish trend structure keeps the focus on cycle lows at 146.54, before 145.92, the Oct 4 2024 low.
  • EURUSD attempted to pullback from its recent highs, printing 1.0823 in the aftermath of the US PPI data on Thursday. However, dips remain well supported following last week’s impressive 5% rally, keeping the topside vulnerable as markets digest the ongoing US growth concerns and Eu fiscal developments.
  • The ongoing resilience for the Mexican peso gained traction despite the weakness in equities, prompting USDMXN to print fresh 2025 lows below 20.13 support. On the downside, immediate attention turns to the December low at 20.0219, with greater downside momentum targeting 19.7618, the Nov 7 low. Resistance moves down to the 20- and 50-day moving averages, intersecting around the 20.40 mark.
  • Friday will bring UK monthly GDP data and US preliminary UMich sentiment and inflation expectations figures.
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  • Thursday’s session has been characterised by another bout of US equity weakness. The direction of the greenback has been less clear to the waning sentiment than in recent sessions, leaving the Japanese yen as the key beneficiary from the moves.
  • As such, AUDJPY is down ~0.9% as we approach the APAC crossover, and the ongoing weakness/volatility in equity markets will keep this cross firmly in the spotlight in coming weeks. Both 20- and 50-day EMAs have acted as strong resistance, keeping a bearish threat at the fore. Two lows at 91.86 provide initial support, of which a breach would target a move to the carry unwind lows around 90.00 from August last year.
  • For USDJPY, yesterday’s flurry above 148.00 has proved short-lived and spot tracks closer to 147.50 in late European trade. The bearish trend structure keeps the focus on cycle lows at 146.54, before 145.92, the Oct 4 2024 low.
  • EURUSD attempted to pullback from its recent highs, printing 1.0823 in the aftermath of the US PPI data on Thursday. However, dips remain well supported following last week’s impressive 5% rally, keeping the topside vulnerable as markets digest the ongoing US growth concerns and Eu fiscal developments.
  • The ongoing resilience for the Mexican peso gained traction despite the weakness in equities, prompting USDMXN to print fresh 2025 lows below 20.13 support. On the downside, immediate attention turns to the December low at 20.0219, with greater downside momentum targeting 19.7618, the Nov 7 low. Resistance moves down to the 20- and 50-day moving averages, intersecting around the 20.40 mark.
  • Friday will bring UK monthly GDP data and US preliminary UMich sentiment and inflation expectations figures.