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Crude Clears 50-day EMA As USD Strength Weighs

COMMODITIES
  • WTI is trading firmly lower, although has lifted from its intraday low of $82.94/b. A stronger dollar driven by the higher-than-expected US S&P global October manufacturing PMI at 50 vs 49.8 prior has weighed on crude prices.
  • The key risk comes from any potential impact on Iran supply which could be greater than any boost to Venezuela production amid easing US sanctions.
  • The number of vessels that loaded sanctioned Iranian and Venezuelan crude has seen a 3% increase so far this year and has increased 13% in terms of capacity according to Kpler.
  • Blinken today: "In recent weeks, Iran's proxies have repeatedly attacked US personnel in Iraq and Syria... So let me say this... The United States does not seek conflict with Iran," but, "if Iran or its proxies attack US personnel anywhere make no mistake we will defend our people, we will defend our security swiftly and decisively."
  • US crude oil inventories are expected to be largely stable on the week when the EIA released the data Oct. 25, based on a WSJ survey.
  • The IEA World Oil Outlook released today sees oil, gas, coal demand to peak by 2030 with oil demand of 92.5mb/d, down 0.5mb/d from year's report while the 2050 oil demand projection was reduced by 2.4mb/d to 54.8mb/d.
  • WTI is -1.9% at $83.84, clearing support at $84.12 (50-day EMA) to open $80.20 (Oct 6 low).
  • Brent is -1.9% at $88.16, off a low of $87.42 to clear support at $88.15 (50-day EMA) to open $83.44 (Oct 6 low and bear trigger).
  • Gold is near unchanged at $1973.46, after a strong recovery off a low of $1953.71 which took it back away from support at $194.3 (Oct 19 low).
Energy BulletsCommodities
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