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OIL: Crude Continues Slide As US Talks About Peace In Ukraine

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Oil prices have continued moving lower during APAC trading today after falling almost 3% yesterday. They have been pressured by the prospect of peace in Ukraine possibly allowing Russia to export more oil, another large US crude inventory build and maybe less Fed easing following higher-than-expected January inflation. The weaker US dollar (USD BBDXY -0.2%) is unable to support crude. 

  • WTI is 1.0% lower at $70.64, close to the intraday low, while Brent is also down 1% to $74.44/bbl. Both benchmarks are holding above initial support at $70.43 and $74.10 respectively.
  • The US administration spoke further today about Ukraine/Russia. President Trump is likely to meet Russian President Putin in person in Saudi Arabia some time. Also it’s not “realistic” for Ukraine to join NATO. Trump has said negotiations will begin imminently but there is a long way to go before there is a truce and so markets may be volatile in the meantime.
  • The US’ EIA increased its forecast for excess global supply in 2025 and 2026. The IEA’s monthly report is out later today. Markets have been concerned about the impact of protectionism on global demand.
  • Later the Fed’s Goolsbee appears and US January PPI and jobless claims print as well as UK December IP, trade, construction and preliminary Q4 GDP, and euro area December IP and EC forecasts. The ECB’s Cipollone also speaks. 
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Oil prices have continued moving lower during APAC trading today after falling almost 3% yesterday. They have been pressured by the prospect of peace in Ukraine possibly allowing Russia to export more oil, another large US crude inventory build and maybe less Fed easing following higher-than-expected January inflation. The weaker US dollar (USD BBDXY -0.2%) is unable to support crude. 

  • WTI is 1.0% lower at $70.64, close to the intraday low, while Brent is also down 1% to $74.44/bbl. Both benchmarks are holding above initial support at $70.43 and $74.10 respectively.
  • The US administration spoke further today about Ukraine/Russia. President Trump is likely to meet Russian President Putin in person in Saudi Arabia some time. Also it’s not “realistic” for Ukraine to join NATO. Trump has said negotiations will begin imminently but there is a long way to go before there is a truce and so markets may be volatile in the meantime.
  • The US’ EIA increased its forecast for excess global supply in 2025 and 2026. The IEA’s monthly report is out later today. Markets have been concerned about the impact of protectionism on global demand.
  • Later the Fed’s Goolsbee appears and US January PPI and jobless claims print as well as UK December IP, trade, construction and preliminary Q4 GDP, and euro area December IP and EC forecasts. The ECB’s Cipollone also speaks.