MNI NBP WATCH: Lack Of New Data, Hawkish Gov Points To Hold
MNI (LONDON) - The National Bank of Poland is expected to leave key interest rates unaltered tomorrow, with attention focusing once again on Governor Adam Glapinksi’s press conference a day later. (MNI EM NBPWATCH: Reference Rate Held At 5.75%, NBP Stays Hawkish)
With little in the way of new data to go on since the last Monetary Policy Council three weeks ago bar some zloty strengthening - a factor policymakers have previously played down - there is no reason to think the NBP will depart from market consensus. The reference rate is likely to hold at 5.75%, where it has been since October 2023.
What remains to be seen is the force with which Glapinski adheres in Thursday’s press conference to his assessment that no debate over rate cuts is possible before March, despite a growing number of MPC members indicating at least cautious optimism that the second half of the year could see some easing.
Even so, February’s meeting is likely to be something of a dead-rubber ahead of next month, when both revised January CPI data will and the Bank’s updated inflation projections will be available.