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Crude Edges Higher After Sharp Fall Yesterday

OIL
StoryEnergy BulletsCommodities

Crude markets have regained some ground today but have held onto most of the losses seen yesterday which were driven by global demand worries. Brent front month fell to a low of $72.7/bbl.

  • Concerns over the strength of China’s economy are ongoing but after weak US consumer confidence, markets are worried that uncertainty and US trade policies are weighing on US sentiment and growth.
  • The supply outlook also faces uncertainty from the impact of US policy on Iran sanctions and Ukraine peace negotiations as well as future OPEC+ output policy and a potential resumption of Kurdistan exports.
  • The impact of sanctions on global exports is unclear as Russia and Iran aim to find workarounds such as increased vessel-to-vessel transfers.
  • OPEC+ is set to maintain production quotas unchanged to keep the market balanced in H2 2025, Morgan Stanley said cited by Bloomberg.
  • EIA US crude inventories are today expected to show a build of 2.51mbbl and with a draw for both gasoline and distillates, a Bloomberg survey shows. API data yesterday showed a crude stock draw of 0.64mbbl, according to Reuters sources. Gasoline stocks rose 0.537mbbl and distillates fell 1.11mbbl. Inventories have been impacted by scheduled refinery maintenance and Canadian producers increasing flows to the US ahead of tariffs.
  • Cracks followed the bearish move in crude yesterday with focus on future demand uncertainty and the seasonal refinery maintenance season.
    • Brent APR 25 up 0.3% at 73.26$/bbl
    • WTI APR 25 up 0.3% at 69.16$/bbl
    • Brent APR 25-MAY 25 up 0.02$/bbl at 0.54$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 25-DEC 25 unchanged at 2.16$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0$/bbl at 24.02$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.1$/bbl at 28.83$/bbl
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Crude markets have regained some ground today but have held onto most of the losses seen yesterday which were driven by global demand worries. Brent front month fell to a low of $72.7/bbl.

  • Concerns over the strength of China’s economy are ongoing but after weak US consumer confidence, markets are worried that uncertainty and US trade policies are weighing on US sentiment and growth.
  • The supply outlook also faces uncertainty from the impact of US policy on Iran sanctions and Ukraine peace negotiations as well as future OPEC+ output policy and a potential resumption of Kurdistan exports.
  • The impact of sanctions on global exports is unclear as Russia and Iran aim to find workarounds such as increased vessel-to-vessel transfers.
  • OPEC+ is set to maintain production quotas unchanged to keep the market balanced in H2 2025, Morgan Stanley said cited by Bloomberg.
  • EIA US crude inventories are today expected to show a build of 2.51mbbl and with a draw for both gasoline and distillates, a Bloomberg survey shows. API data yesterday showed a crude stock draw of 0.64mbbl, according to Reuters sources. Gasoline stocks rose 0.537mbbl and distillates fell 1.11mbbl. Inventories have been impacted by scheduled refinery maintenance and Canadian producers increasing flows to the US ahead of tariffs.
  • Cracks followed the bearish move in crude yesterday with focus on future demand uncertainty and the seasonal refinery maintenance season.
    • Brent APR 25 up 0.3% at 73.26$/bbl
    • WTI APR 25 up 0.3% at 69.16$/bbl
    • Brent APR 25-MAY 25 up 0.02$/bbl at 0.54$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 25-DEC 25 unchanged at 2.16$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0$/bbl at 24.02$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.1$/bbl at 28.83$/bbl