Crude Edges Higher on China PMI

Crude markets are edging higher today with slightly improved Chinese manufacturing PMI data and a weaker US dollar, adding to recent support from Middle East tensions and Russia energy infrastructure strikes while watching for any indications of future OPEC+ plans ahead of the JMMC meeting this week.

• Brent JUN 24 up 0.3% at 87.28$/bbl
• WTI MAY 24 up 0.4% at 83.48$/bbl
• Gasoil APR 24 up 0.7% at 822.5$/mt
• WTI-Brent down 0.26$/bbl at -4.59$/bbl
• Trading is likely to be thin today as due to Europe’s Easter holiday.
• China’s manufacturing PMI of 50.8 in March showed the economy has made marginal improvements after rising above the 50 mark for the first time in six months, according to Wen Tao, analyst at the China Logistics Information Centre.
• Wednesday’s OPEC JMMC is expected to recommend the group stays on the current trajectory as it’s members hold the path to shore up production and keep prices high.
  • Brent JUN 24-JUL 24 down 0.01$/bbl at 0.84$/bbl
  • Brent JUL 24-AUG 24 unchanged at 0.8$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 up 0.02$/bbl at 4.57$/bbl
• Expectation of a market deficit in Q2 due to tighter supply and potential Fed easing this year continue to support crude backwardation. The Brent Jun24-Dec24 time spread continued to rally well over $4/bbl, from below $1/bbl in December.
• Gasoline cracks are edging lower with demand increasing at a slightly lower rate than expected, the unexpected build in US gasoline stocks in last week’s EIA data and US refineries returning from seasonal maintenance. Diesel cracks are also edging slightly down.
  • US gasoline crack down 0.2$/bbl at 30.86$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down 0.1$/bbl at 26.89$/bbl