Crude Edges Towards Recent High Ahead of US CPI and OPEC MOMR

Front month crude is edging higher towards the high of $82.45/bbl from Feb 9 supported by uncertainty over Middle East tensions and the impact of supplies. Global demand concerns limit upside amid an uncertain pace of US interest rate cuts ahead of the US CPI data today.

• Brent APR 24 up 0.4% at 82.29$/bbl
• WTI MAR 24 up 0.5% at 77.27$/bbl
• Gasoil MAR 24 up 1.3% at 882.5$/mt
• WTI-Brent up 0.03$/bbl at -5.12$/bbl
• Conflicts in the Middle East remain in focus with Central Command reporting that a Houthi missile hit the MV Star Iris and that there was minor damage to the vessel. Israel attacked Rafah despite the US requesting they abstain while US President Biden calls for all Israeli hostages to be released and for a 6-week ceasefire.
• The OPEC monthly oil reports today may help to give clarity to the balance in 2024 and member compliance with pledged cuts. The OPEC+ group could decide in early March on whether to extend cuts into Q2 amid a potential market surplus.
• The EU is looking to impose trade restrictions on Russian firms who support the war effort. It is also examining how the price cap on Russian oil can be enforced more strictly.
  • Brent APR 24-MAY 24 up 0.03$/bbl at 0.52$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 up 0.07$/bbl at 2.71$/bbl
• Diesel crack spreads yesterday erased most of Friday’s rise but are holding most of this month’s gains amid Red Sea diversions, refinery maintenance, and drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
  • US gasoline crack up 0$/bbl at 22.46$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0.4$/bbl at 46.57$/bbl