Crude Ends July Strongly, WTI Highest Since November 2022

Oil rallied again to finish July up sharply. It was supported by signs of further supply tightening from Saudi Arabia and optimism regarding China stimulus. WTI rose 1.5% to $81.76/bbl and has started the day steady at $81.77. Brent is 1.1% higher at $85.31. The USD index was up 0.25%.

• WTI reached an intraday high of $82 but found resistance here, the highest since early November last year. Resistance is now at $83.59, 11 July 2022 high. It ended July up 15.5%. Brent’s high was $85.58 and ended the month 13.3% higher. Resistance is at $85.60, January 27 high, followed by $86.18, January 23 high.
• Saudi Arabia is expected to extend its voluntary output cuts to September, according to Bloomberg. And a Reuters survey suggests that OPEC production fell 840kbd in July. With Saudi and Russia reducing output, consumers have turned to the US, but production fell there for the second straight month in July according to the EIA and refining has been impacted by the heat. Oil production in Alberta, Canada, is also down due to maintenance. The market is expected to be in deficit in H2 2023.