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Crude Fades, But Holding On To Solid Weekly Gain

COMMODITIES
  • WTI crude futures have faded back to the $71/bbl handle ahead of the Wednesday open, with markets shrugging off the USD's weakness posted since the Tuesday London close. Weakness is modest, however, with benchmark oil contracts still close to 10% above the Dec2 low.
  • Last week's rebound in WTI has resulted in a stronger short-term recovery. On the 60-min chart, the move higher this week has confirmed an inverted head and shoulder reversal, reinforcing the current bull cycle and suggesting scope for stronger gains near-term.
  • Gold remains above last week's lows. Short-term conditions are still bearish, having recently pulled back from $1877.2, the Nov 16 high. Price has breached both the 20- and the 50-day EMAs and attention is on the base of a bull channel at $1763.8 today.
  • Focus turns to the weekly DoE crude oil inventories release, where markets expect a draw of just over 1mln bbls for the headline stockpile.

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