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Crude Finds Support From Geopolitics And Improved Risk Sentiment

OIL

Oil prices rose early in the session on news that an American base in Iraq had been attacked and better risk sentiment. While they are still up on the day, they are off their intraday highs. WTI is up 1.6% to $74.08/bbl after a peak of $74.56, and Brent is 1.3% higher at $77.27/bbl after rising to $77.85. The USD index is up 0.1%.

  • The market is watching developments in the Middle East closely as Iran is expected to retaliate for Israel’s killing of Hamas’ political leader in Tehran. Iran is the 7th largest global oil producer plus it controls the Strait of Hormuz which is important for oil and gas shipments.
  • Through the geopolitics the market is still watching fundamentals closely. It has been concerned about the strength of China’s demand for some time and is now worried about the US. Supply developments also remain important and the US has recorded 5 straight weekly crude inventory drawdowns. Industry stock data is released later today with the official EIA on Wednesday.
  • Also, output at Libya’s largest oil field has been stopped due to the continued conflict between the country’s two governments.
  • Later US June trade data, German June factory orders and euro area June retail sales print.
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