Crude Futures and Spreads Tick Up from Earlier Losses

Crude flat price and time spreads have recovered some ground after earlier losses with supply risks from an escalation in the conflict in Israel weighed against hopes for an increase in supply from Venezuela after an easing of US sanctions.

• The Brent Dec23 contract bull cycle remains in play with the 50-day EMA support at 87.73$/bbl and a key support and bear trigger at the 6 Oct low of 83.44$/bbl. First resistance is at the 18 Oct high of 93$/bbl.
• The Brent prompt spread has trended lower from a high in late September but at 1.14$/bbl is still well above levels seen in early September and before.
• The WTI-Brent spread continues to narrow after draw in Cushing stocks in EIA data released yesterday.
• Brent future aggregate daily traded volumes increased yesterday to 1.08m after a dip earlier this week but remains below the average so far this month. Traded options volumes however are still strong up at 298k compared to an average of 174k in September. WTI futures volumes have edged up to 0.785m ahead of the Nov23 contract expiry tomorrow while WTI options volumes are near normal at 143k.
  • Brent DEC 23 down -1% at 90.57$/bbl
  • WTI NOV 23 down -0.9% at 87.5$/bbl
  • WTI-Brent up 0.15$/bbl at -4.03$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 23-JAN 24 down -0.14$/bbl at 1.14$/bbl
  • Brent JAN 24-FEB 24 down -0.1$/bbl at 0.95$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 down -0.42$/bbl at 7.71$/bbl
  • WTI NOV 23-DEC 23 down -0.09$/bbl at 0.96$/bbl
  • WTI DEC 23-JAN 24 down -0.02$/bbl at 1.16$/bbl
  • WTI DEC 23-DEC 24 down -0.24$/bbl at 8.27$/bbl