Crude Futures and Time Spreads Hold Near Recent Highs

Crude is steady today after falling over a percent yesterday from a range high of around $83.6/bbl as oil markets continue to assess persistent geopolitical risks, global demand growth and uncertainty over OPEC+ production plans.

• Brent APR 24 up 0.3% at 82.55$/bbl
• WTI APR 24 up 0.2% at 77.23$/bbl
• Gasoil MAR 24 unchanged at 837.75$/mt
• WTI-Brent unchanged at -5.32$/bbl
• There were reports today from the UK navy of increased drone activity just north of the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
• Russia met its target for crude-export cuts in January, complying with its voluntary cut pledge, according to data from the country’s Energy Ministry.
• Crude time spreads are at the highest since October suggesting tight market conditions with the prompt Brent spread rally from 0.21$/bbl in early Feb up to a high of 0.88$/bbl yesterday.
  • Brent APR 24-MAY 24 down -0.03$/bbl at 0.81$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 unchanged at 3.03$/bbl
• The Middle East conflict and attacks on shipping in the Red Sea have resulted in increased shipping costs and supported refining margins. US diesel cracks however continue to pull back amid demand concern, easing US refining outages from the high in Jan and with a ramp up in Middle East refining capacity.
• The day delayed US API oil inventories data is due for release today and EIA tomorrow after seeing volatile numbers since the severe cold in mid Jan.
  • US gasoline crack up 10.8$/bbl at 28.79$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -1.4$/bbl at 35.29$/bbl