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Crude Futures Bounce After Sharp 5% Decline, Gold Trend Remains Bullish

  • Front-month crude futures have recouped the majority of earlier losses after announcements of a delay to the OPEC+ ministerial meeting initially sent prices tumbling by as much as 5% on the session. The conference delay comes amid disagreement on output assessment from African nations.
  • Another US crude inventory stock build, also at Cushing weighed on the WTI-Brent spread.
  • A bearish theme in WTI futures remains in play and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. The break lower last week marked an extension of the downtrend that started late September and has maintained a price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting bearish sentiment. The focus is on $70.96, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is at $79.65, the Nov 14 high.
  • The stronger greenback weighed on precious metals at the margin, with spot gold consolidating back below the 2,000/oz mark for now. The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and this week’s gains reinforce this condition. The move higher signals scope for a test of key short-term resistance at $2009.4, the Nov 7 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards $2022.2, the May 15 high.
  • Some analysts went further, with Fundstrat’s technician setting an intermediate target" for gold to reach $2,500. In follow-up comments to Business Insider via email, the analyst said a breach of resistance at $2,080 would signal a "definite technical breakout," which they expect to happen and quickly drive gold even higher.

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