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OIL: Crude Holding Gains After US CPI Data

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Crude holds previous gains after the US CPI data came in line but most of the main categories of inflation surprised to the upside across the board. Crude prices are supported by a slightly weaker US dollar following the data with the Fed still expected to cut rates next week.

  • CPI Nov'24 Unrounded % M/M (SA): Headline 0.313%; Core: 0.308% (0.280% prior mth)
  • Unrounded % Y/Y (NSA): Headline 2.749%; Core: 3.319% (3.333% prior mth)
  • Crude markets were already edging higher ahead of EIA weekly data today as the market weighs the possible supply/demand balance for 2025 and increased tensions in the Middle East.
  • OPEC lowered its annual demand growth to 1.61m b/d for 2024, down 210k b/d compared to last month’s assessment, according to their December Monthly Oil Market Report.
  • Technical analysis suggests the outlook in Brent futures remains bearish with support at $69.52 the Oct 1 low, and $67.89, the Sep 10 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is at $75.79, the Nov 5 high and key resistance is at $79.98, the Oct 7 high.
    • Brent FEB 25 up 1.2% at 73.08$/bbl
    • WTI JAN 25 up 1.3% at 69.51$/bbl
    • Brent FEB 25-MAR 25 up 0.06$/bbl at 0.35$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 25-DEC 25 up 0.11$/bbl at 1.06$/bbl
    • WTI JAN 25-FEB 25 up 0.05$/bbl at 0.37$/bbl
    • WTI JUN 25-DEC 25 up 0.12$/bbl at 1.2$/bbl
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Crude holds previous gains after the US CPI data came in line but most of the main categories of inflation surprised to the upside across the board. Crude prices are supported by a slightly weaker US dollar following the data with the Fed still expected to cut rates next week.

  • CPI Nov'24 Unrounded % M/M (SA): Headline 0.313%; Core: 0.308% (0.280% prior mth)
  • Unrounded % Y/Y (NSA): Headline 2.749%; Core: 3.319% (3.333% prior mth)
  • Crude markets were already edging higher ahead of EIA weekly data today as the market weighs the possible supply/demand balance for 2025 and increased tensions in the Middle East.
  • OPEC lowered its annual demand growth to 1.61m b/d for 2024, down 210k b/d compared to last month’s assessment, according to their December Monthly Oil Market Report.
  • Technical analysis suggests the outlook in Brent futures remains bearish with support at $69.52 the Oct 1 low, and $67.89, the Sep 10 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is at $75.79, the Nov 5 high and key resistance is at $79.98, the Oct 7 high.
    • Brent FEB 25 up 1.2% at 73.08$/bbl
    • WTI JAN 25 up 1.3% at 69.51$/bbl
    • Brent FEB 25-MAR 25 up 0.06$/bbl at 0.35$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 25-DEC 25 up 0.11$/bbl at 1.06$/bbl
    • WTI JAN 25-FEB 25 up 0.05$/bbl at 0.37$/bbl
    • WTI JUN 25-DEC 25 up 0.12$/bbl at 1.2$/bbl