Crude Holding Gains Ahead of US Weekly EIA Data

Crude front month is holding small gains higher ahead of another expected crude draw in the EIA weekly US inventory data and with support from Libya‘s supply disruption and Middle East risks but limited by weak demand concerns.

• EIA data is expected to show a small crude draw while gasoline and distillates stocks are expecting a build and refinery utilisation is forecast to decline according to a Bloomberg survey.
• OPIS expect another subpar implied gasoline demand close to 8mb/d with a survey suggesting a modest recovery from last week but well below 2000-2023 levels.
• Technicals suggest the primary trend for the Brent March 24 contract is down with first resistance at Jan 4 high of $79.41/bbl and support at the Jan 3 low of $74.79/bbl.
• Near term spreads are seeing support again today with the WTI prompt edging into backwardation and the Brent spread the highest since early Nov.
  • Brent MAR 24 up 0.9% at 78.28$/bbl
  • WTI FEB 24 up 1.2% at 73.14$/bbl
  • WTI-Brent up 0.08$/bbl at -5.16$/bbl
  • Brent MAR 24-APR 24 up 0.05$/bbl at 0.38$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 up 0.07$/bbl at 1.89$/bbl
  • WTI FEB 24-MAR 24 up 0.06$/bbl at 0.01$/bbl
  • WTI JUN 24-DEC 24 up 0.03$/bbl at 1.93$/bbl