OIL: Crude Holds Onto Recent Gains, IEA Monthly Report Out Later

Oil prices have range traded through today’s APAC session holding onto Wednesday’s 2% gains driven by a better supply/demand outlook. There has been some pullback in risk today but it hasn’t pressured crude materially in the session. WTI is down 0.2% to $67.58/bbl after falling to $67.48 earlier. Brent is 0.1% lower at $70.90/bbl after a low of $70.79 followed by a high of $71.10. The USD index is flat. 

• The demand outlook was unrevised in OPEC’s March report but it showed that its February output exceeded targets due to Kazakhstan significantly exceeding its quota. It plans to reduce its production. On Tuesday, the US’ EIA cut back its forecasts for excess supply in 2025 and 2026 because of tighter sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. The IEA publishes its report later today.
• Europe and Canada retaliated for the US’s import duties on steel and aluminium. Oil markets have been worried about the impact of increased protectionism on global growth and Brent is down almost 10% since President Trump’s inauguration. It is also concerned about plans to increase US production, which was supported by the large US energy companies at this week’s CERAweek conference in Texas.
• Later US February PPI and jobless claims print. The ECB’s Lagarde and de Guindos appear and January euro area IP is released.