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Crude Holds Strong Backwardation as Futures Ease Back from Range High

OIL

Crude backwardation remains strong while futures are holding within the wide $74.8/bbl to $84.8/bbl range this year as front month pulls back from the high end of the range this week.

  • Uncertainty over OPEC+ production plans and global demand growth combine to limit upside from Middle East supply risks. Iraqi Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani said this week he thinks there is no need for OPEC+ to extend the Q1 cuts but will comply with whatever OPEC decides.
  • Crude time spreads are however holding at the highest since October suggesting tight market conditions with the prompt Brent spread rally from 0.21$/bbl in early Feb up to a high of 0.88$/bbl yesterday. Curve backwardation has strengthened on tanker diversions from the Red Sea, coupled with the geopolitical risk tensions with the risk of an OPEC+ cut extension into Q2 likely to weigh on global inventories.
    • Brent APR 24 down -0.7% at 81.8$/bbl
    • WTI APR 24 down -0.7% at 76.49$/bbl
    • WTI-Brent up 0.01$/bbl at -5.31$/bbl
    • Brent APR 24-MAY 24 down -0.04$/bbl at 0.8$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 down -0.12$/bbl at 2.91$/bbl
    • WTI APR 24-MAY 24 down -0.04$/bbl at 0.38$/bbl
    • WTI JUN 24-DEC 24 down -0.16$/bbl at 2.93$/bbl


Source: Bloomberg

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