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Crude Implied Volatility Rebounds Ahead of Key Events

OIL OPTIONS

Crude ATM implied volatility has rebounded over the last few days as the market has switched focus from a potential demand recovery to global economic concerns.

  • Russian oil output concerns, tomorrow’s OPEC JMMC meeting and US Fed meeting all add to the market uncertainty. Russian exports have recovered in recent weeks despite current sanctions but there are concerns for the impact of the EU ban on seaborne Russian oil products from 5 Feb.
  • Brent second month volatility increased from 38.2% on 26 Jan up to 40.4% while WTI has increase from 39.1% to 41.9% in the same period.
  • The premium to cover downside crude moves has held relatively stable for most of this month. The second month Brent call-put skew has closed slightly this week to -3.5% while the WTI skew is in to around -4.1%.
  • The Brent Dec23 call-put skew has edged higher to around -5.1% and the WTI Dec23 skew is around -6.2%.
    • Brent APR 23 down -1.3% at 83.42$/bbl
    • WTI MAR 23 down -1.4% at 76.78$/bbl


Source: Bloomberg

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