Crude Jumps on China Covid Policy Changes and Weaker USD

Crude has surged nearly 4$/bbl since a low yesterday after below expected US CPI data yesterday and a weaker US dollar followed by the first easing of Chinese covid restrictions announced this morning.

• China is moving to more targeted restrictions aiming to limit the economic impact of covid including reduced international travel and quarantine restrictions. The easing comes despite new covid cases reaching a fresh multi-month high.
  • Brent JAN 23 up 2.6% at 96.06$/bbl
  • WTI DEC 22 up 2.6% at 88.75$/bbl
  • Gasoil DEC 22 up 2.5% at 1008.75$/mt
  • WTI-Brent down -0.21$/bbl at -8.14$/bbl
• Uncertainty over global oil demand due to an economic slowdown and recession and Chinese growth concerns is helping to maintain high market volatility.
• Time spreads also rallied in line with the flat price moves but levels remain below the peak seen earlier this week. Strong curve backwardation is supported by concern for tighter physical supplies with the potential drop in Russian output leading up to the EU ban on seaborne supplies next month.
  • Brent JAN 23-FEB 23 up 0.08$/bbl at 1.66$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 23-DEC 23 up 0.33$/bbl at 4.81$/bbl
• Refined product crack spreads have remained largely stable this week with tight supplies offset against oil demand growth concerns. Diesel cracks are ticking slightly higher today following the wider commodities rally.
  • US gasoline crack up 0.2$/bbl at 21.52$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 1.6$/bbl at 65.34$/bbl