Crude Maintains Bearish Momentum Ahead of US Fed and OPEC MOMR

Crude markets are falling again today to the lowest levels since late June after a nearly 3$/bbl drop yesterday and ahead of the Fed decision and OPEC monthly oil report later today. Downside pressure comes from strong US and Russia production, continued scepticism towards OPEC+ output cuts, and a continued weak economic outlook. US CPI yesterday drove less dovish Fed pricing and a stronger USD aiding bearish momentum in oil.

• Brent FEB 24 down -0.6% at 72.82$/bbl
• WTI JAN 24 down -0.6% at 68.19$/bbl
• Gasoil JAN 24 down -0.6% at 719.5$/mt
• WTI-Brent up 0.01$/bbl at -4.37$/bbl
• The EIA Short Term Energy Outlook revised up crude production for 2023 from its forecast in November to 12.93mb/d although revised 2024 production lower to 13.11mb/d. Brent prices have been revised down to 82.57$/bbl in 2024 and 82.4$/bbl in 2023.
• Russian weekly seaborne crude exports rose to the highest since early July at 3.2mbpd last week after storms had previously disrupted Black Sea shipments.
  • Brent FEB 24-MAR 24 down -0.03$/bbl at -0.31$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 down -0.11$/bbl at 0.52$/bbl
• Time spreads are following the bearish moves with Brent Jun24-Dec24 falling to the lowest since May 4 and the prompt Brent spread contango strengthening to a spread of -0.32$/bbl.
• Diesel and gasoline cracks continue to trend lower in December ahead of the updated weekly EIA oil inventory data. API data last night showed distillates and gasoline builds and a draw in crude stocks.
  • US gasoline crack down -0.1$/bbl at 14.79$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.2$/bbl at 36.69$/bbl