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Crude Markets Steady After OPEC MOMR and US CPI

OIL

Crude markets move sideways after the latest OPEC monthly report and US CPI data was released at 12:30GMT.

  • On US CPI: Firmer than expected CPI initially unwinds some of the Fed rate cut premium, before a look at unrounded numbers and slower supercore M/M inflation tempers/reverses the move.
  • The OPEC MOMR maintained its oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and for 2025 steady on the month and lifted its non-OPEC supply growth forecast to 1.4mbpd in 2025.
  • Brent May24 technicals show a bullish structure remains intact and attention is on the key resistance at the Jan 29 high of $83.65/bbl. Initial pivot support is at the 50-day EMA at $80.94/bbl.
  • Crude time spreads are also holding steady after seeing a pull back over the last week, although the curve remains in strong backwardation suggesting tighter market conditions.
    • Brent MAY 24 down 0% at 82.2$/bbl
    • WTI APR 24 down 0% at 77.92$/bbl
    • WTI-Brent up 0.03$/bbl at -4.64$/bbl
    • Brent MAY 24-JUN 24 unchanged at 0.49$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 up 0.07$/bbl at 3.4$/bbl
    • WTI APR 24-MAY 24 down 0.04$/bbl at 0.36$/bbl
    • WTI JUN 24-DEC 24 up 0.07$/bbl at 3.36$/bbl

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