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OIL: Crude Moderately Higher Following Syrian Turmoil

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Oil prices are moderately higher during APAC trading today after falling sharply on Friday. Brent is up 0.3% to $71.34/bbl after a high of $71.49, and WTI is 0.5% higher at $67.50 after rising to $67.59. The USD index is up around 0.1%.

  • The outlook for both Brent and WTI is bearish. Initial support is at $69.95 and $66.32 respectively. Bear triggers are at $67.89 and $63.90.
  • OPEC pushed out the planned start of its output normalisation to April at its meeting last week. Now Saudi Arabia has cut prices for shipments to Asia with the premium falling to its lowest in four years, more than expected, according to Bloomberg. It also reduced prices for Europe but not to North America. Expected excess supply in 2025 continues to weigh on prices.
  • Geopolitics in the Middle East remain in focus with the Iranian- and Russian-backed Assad regime in Syria being toppled by Turkish-supported rebel groups on the weekend. The spread of instability in the region to major oil-producer Iran remains the market’s key concern. Today’s restrained rise in oil prices implies that crude is not yet too worried about the developments.
  • Later November NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations print and ECB’s Cipollone and BoE’s Ramsden speak. The Fed is in its pre-meeting blackout period.
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Oil prices are moderately higher during APAC trading today after falling sharply on Friday. Brent is up 0.3% to $71.34/bbl after a high of $71.49, and WTI is 0.5% higher at $67.50 after rising to $67.59. The USD index is up around 0.1%.

  • The outlook for both Brent and WTI is bearish. Initial support is at $69.95 and $66.32 respectively. Bear triggers are at $67.89 and $63.90.
  • OPEC pushed out the planned start of its output normalisation to April at its meeting last week. Now Saudi Arabia has cut prices for shipments to Asia with the premium falling to its lowest in four years, more than expected, according to Bloomberg. It also reduced prices for Europe but not to North America. Expected excess supply in 2025 continues to weigh on prices.
  • Geopolitics in the Middle East remain in focus with the Iranian- and Russian-backed Assad regime in Syria being toppled by Turkish-supported rebel groups on the weekend. The spread of instability in the region to major oil-producer Iran remains the market’s key concern. Today’s restrained rise in oil prices implies that crude is not yet too worried about the developments.
  • Later November NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations print and ECB’s Cipollone and BoE’s Ramsden speak. The Fed is in its pre-meeting blackout period.