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Crude Option Skew Turns More Bearish on Demand Risks

OIL OPTIONS

The second month crude options call-put skew has turned more bearish as it has drifted lower again over the last week as market focus returns to the oil demand growth uncertainty.

  • Tighter near term supplies and voluntary OPEC cuts from next month had pushed the Brent skew up to about -4.9% earlier this month before falling back to -5.9% today.
  • The WTI second month 25 delta call-put skew is also lower at -6.2% compared to -4.4% last week.
  • The Dec23 skews are holding relatively steady with many analysts suggesting a supply deficit in the second half of this year but also highlighting the downside risks from the global economy. The Brent Dec23 skew is at -6.1% and WTI is at -7.3%.
  • ATM implied volatility has recovered from a low of around 32% last week with Brent second month volatility up to 34.1% and WTI up to 35.3%.


Source: Bloomberg

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